Isaac Probably a Hurricane...but No Threat 

Updated: Saturday, 9/30/2006, 1:59AM EDT - Tropical storm Isaac has strengthened during the last 24 hours and is now probably a hurricane.  The latest information from the NHC estimated the strength at 70MPH...just under hurricane strength...but satellite imagery suggests Isaac is stronger and will be a hurricane in the morning.

That makes 4 named storms...3 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes for the month of September...but the good news is all of that business happened in the central Atlantic.

We will be watching as attention shifts back into the western Caribbean for the remainder of the hurricane season.  Will the El Nino pattern prevail...or will development occur sometime in the next few weeks down there?  We will watch and wait...because no one knows for sure.  

We discussed Isaac and other related topics on the TalkinTropics program Thursday evening.  If you would like to check out the archived broadcast...please follow the link below.

MW

Tropical Depression 9 Forms...Will Turn to Sea

Updated: Wedneday, 9/27/2006, 3:50PM EDT - Tropical Depression 9 has developed out in the central Atlantic.  Although this system will be upgraded at 5PM...it poses no threat what so ever to the US coast and will likely turn to sea before reaching Bermuda.  The year of the central Atlantic hurricane continues.  Advisory links will become active around 5PM EDT.

Elsewhere...little else is happening in the tropics...and in general they remain unusually quiet for this time of year...which is of course great news.

MW

Accuweather's Joe Bastardi In the Archive

Updated: Thursday, 9/21/2006, 11:50PM EDT - We were lucky enough to have Accuweather senior meteorologist Joe Bastardi join us for a long interview this evening...he has bested his own record for longest interview...which lasted almost exactly 1 hour and 40 minutes.  As I am sure you can imagine, he covered a lot of ground including the rest of hurricane season 2006, El Nino, the winter pattern setting up as well as a run down of what's happened so far this season.  If you missed it...you can check it out in the archive by following this link:

TalkinTropics with guest Joe Bastardi from Accuweather

To read more more information from Joe, including information on how to subscribe to his column... Click here.

Updated: Thursday, 9/21/2006, 5:35PM EDT - Questions about why the season is so quiet...about El Nino...or what is around the corner as September ends and October begins?  We have the guest to answer those questions and plenty more...as AccuWeather senior meteorologist Joe Bastardi will be joining us live starting at 8PM EDT on the TalkinTropics program.  

To listen live...visit Internet Partnership Radio.  

Helene Turning Away...Tropics Quiet  

Updated: Wedneday, 9/20/2006, 8:35PM EDT - Helene is beginning it's turn to the north over the open Atlantic this evening...which of course is great news.  Helene...which once was a major hurricane...is now back down to category two status...but could get a little stronger before starting to move over cooler waters in a few days.

Elsewhere...the tropics are relatively quiet for it being just ten days past the peak of the season.  There is a tropical wave located well south and west of the Cape Verde islands...far out in the eastern Atlantic.  Some models are suggesting we will see some development from this system in the coming days...but the NHC is not expecting significant development anytime in the next 2 days.

Please join us for another edition of Talkin Tropics this Thursday.  We will start at 9PM EDT and run about 1 and 1/2 hours or so.  You can join us by visiting Internet Partnership Radio.

Phil Klotzbach On Hurricane Season 2006...in the Archives 

Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University, lead author of their widely-read seasonal Atlantic hurricane outlooks, joined us live tonight on the TalkinTropics program.  We discussed the probable cause of our quick switch toward El Nino conditions, what to expect the rest of 2006, and we took a look ahead to the 2007 season.  Thanks to Phil for taking the time to go through these things...you can check out the entire broadcast by clicking here:

Helene Now a Major Hurricane...But No Immediate Threat  

Updated: Monday, 9/18/2006, 1:05AM EDT - Run-to-run consistency continues to be a problem.  So far with the two models out at this time...the NOGAPS models is further south with it's solution through 120 hours...with Helene embedded in a very large ridge...yet the GFS has shifted north and east of it's previous solution.  Both models don't have Helene moving very much by the end of the week.  Often times...stationary solutions in the extended periods are indicators that the models are not quite sure how to solve the problem yet.  So...not much can be gathered from the trends tonight...other than it looks like the 115MPH estimate at the 11PM advisory looks a bit conservative.  Images before the satellite eclipse suggest the hurricane is likely stronger than that.   

Updated: Sunday, 9/17/2006, 11:15PM EDT - Helene is now the second major hurricane to form in the Atlantic this season...with estimated winds now up to 115MPH.  The Hurricane Center expects this system to bend back to the west for another few days...before an upper trough moves into the central Atlantic and picks up the cyclone.

This solution is not assured...but as it stands right now...Helene is no threat to land.  However...the next few runs of the global models will be interesting.  They have not been very consistent from run to run...and this is making the 72 to 120 hour forecast period a difficult one for the NHC forecasters.  

More during the day on Monday as events warrant.  

Models Disagree on Helene's Future Path 

Updated: Sunday, 9/17/2006, 1:15AM EDT - The most recent forecast track from the National Hurricane Center reflects a classic split the difference idea tonight.  Some very reliable models want to turn Helene northwestward then northward in a few days...and some other very reliable models want to turn it back toward the west.  Which model is right?  Well...no one knows yet.

However...one of the models in the west camp...the GFS...seems to have the best handle on the feature causing the northwestward turn in the other guidance...an upper system moving eastward off of the US east coast.

The jury is still out.  But watching the early guidance just coming in...and the GFS and Navy NOGAPS...while still far apart in their solutions...appear to agree on more western Atlantic ridging...which suggests the westward idea may be getting some support.

The odds of Helene affecting the US are still remote...but at least for now...if the GFS model is correct...we will have to keep an eye on Helene well into the coming week...instead of ignoring it like we had the pleasure of doing with Gordon...

Phil Klotzbach On Hurricane Season 2006...in the Archives 

Updated: Thursday, 9/14/2006, 11:58PM EDT - Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University, lead author of their widely-read seasonal Atlantic hurricane outlooks, joined us live tonight on the TalkinTropics program.  We discussed the probable cause of our quick switch toward El Nino conditions, what to expect the rest of 2006, and we took a look ahead to the 2007 season.  Thanks to Phil for taking the time to go through these things...you can check out the entire broadcast by clicking here:

TalkinTropics with guest Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University

Helene continues mostly westward tonight and remains an extreme long-shot for ever affecting land...based on the environmental setup projected by the global models.  It's getting a little stronger...and still should become a hurricane by the end of the weekend.

Gordon, on the other hand, is still a major hurricane with winds of 115mph.  It is no threat to land...and is heading out to sea over the open Atlantic.

Phil Klotzbach Back on Thursday Night

Updated: Tuesday, 9/12/2006, 11:40PM EDT - Before getting to the actual systems out there...it's time to get the skinny on what is happening  this season...there are so many unanswered questions.  What is to come the rest of the season...why so much eastern Atlantic development and so little in the west Atlantic?  And so on...

So joining us on the TalkinTropics program this Thursday (we will be starting at 8PM EDT) will be Phil Klotzback, research associate from Colorado State University and lead author of the CSU seasonal hurricane forecast you have heard so much about.  We will ask Phil those questions above, plus more, Thursday night...so tune in by visiting Internet Partnership Radio.

No big changes with TD 8 or Gordon. tonight...both are destined to simple, unfulfilled lives over water it seems...which means the great news of the 2006 hurricane season keeps rolling on in.  It will be worth watching to see exactly how strong the central Atlantic trough gets...although all of the guidance wants to suggest a recurve for TD 8 will start in five days...a lot can change in the tropical Atlantic in that amount of time.  One thing looks pretty certain...TD 8 should be a hurricane by the end of the week.  And we have plenty...plenty of time to watch it.  

Yet Another Eastern Atlantic Tropical Depression

Updated: Tuesday, 9/12/2006, 10:10AM EDT - Tropical Depression eight will be upgraded at 11AM EDT.  TD 8 is in the far eastern Atlantic...about as far east as possible..moving westward at about 19 MPH.  This system will move westward for the next 4 to 5 days...and could become our first major hurricane of the 2006 season.

Global models want to turn this north in the central Atlantic...a common theme this season...perhaps into a weakness in the ridge caused by Gordon.  However...little confidence exists in the track after 5 days...as the models aren't very good after that time.  Just have to watch and wait for now.  

Links to the advisories are located on the bottom-left...and will update as information comes in this morning.

More Later...

MW

Tropical Storm Gordon Develops in Central Atlantic

Updated: Monday, 9/11/2006, 3:00PM EDT - Recon in TD7 has found strong enough flight winds to allow the NHC to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Gordon at the 5PM advisory.  Since Gordon has already started moving northwestward...it appears that this system will not be a threat to the islands...and may very well pass east of Bermuda in the coming days...hopefully this is the case...as Bermuda is dealing with power disruptions caused by Florence.

Also...there is a new tropical wave emerging from the Africian coast...which almost all of the models want to develop into a significant tropical cyclone as the week progresses.  Like so many we have seen this year...this one is way out there and we will have plenty of time to watch it...however...there looks to be enough ridging in place to allow it to come westward for a few days...at least.  More later as time permits. 

Updated: Monday, 9/11/2006, 1:30AM EDT - First of all...my thoughts are with the families of the brave firefighters and other heroes who disregarded their own personal safety...to do whatever they could in the face of the inconceivable events that happened five years ago today.  And I am thankful to the countless others...who would do so without hesitation...if called upon today.

The global models...as expected...are not very helpful so far.  The GFS and NOGAPS runs completely missed the fact that a tropical cyclone exists where TD7 is now.  So this either means dissipation is coming soon...or we may need another forecast cycle or two before the models latch on.

Still...looks like the westward extent of the ridge axis will be 5 degrees west of the previous GFS projection...and this could make a big difference if TD7 does not recurve by mid week.  More as information becomes available throughout the day on Monday.  

Updated: Sunday, 9/10/2006, 8:55PM EDT - This just in to the TropicalUpdate update desk...we will have Tropical Depression Seven when the 11PM advisory package rolls out in a couple of hours.  This is going to be an interesting forecast package...I would not be surprised to see the NHC create a track south of the global models...and probably at a very slow forward rate over the next few days.

This information will also get into the 00Z global models (which will start coming out a little after 12AM Monday morning).  It will also be interesting to see if their output changes now that they will have an actual cyclone to work with.  My first guess is...no...it's too small to be resolved correctly...but we will see.

I have added the links to the left below Florence...they will become active around 11PM tonight....MW

Updated: Sunday, 9/10/2006, 8:30PM EDT - The tropical wave south and east of Florence...which had been pulsing up and down over the last few days...has become significantly better organized throughout the day today.  

Banding features are starting to develop on the southern side of the system...and deep thunderstorm activity has become deeper over the low level center.  

The NHC has changed tomorrow's recon plan...and has added a mission into this system to fly tomorrow afternoon...which means the aircraft should be in the center sometime around 2PM EDT on Monday.  The global models have been taking this system northward into the wake of Florence...but at least so far...the wave has been moving a little south of due west...indicative that there is either some interaction with Florence going on...or more ridging between this system and Florence than the global models are sensing.  

Starting Tuesday...the NHC will likely begin flights into this developing cyclone four times per day...once every six hours...as long as it continues to come westward.  There is little confidence in the global models at this point...and history tells us that departing tropical cyclones like Florence can also leave a ridge in their wake.  

Meanwhile...Florence has gotten stronger and is now closing in on category two status.  Hurricane warnings are up in Bermuda and hurricane conditions are possible there within the next 24 hours or so.

I will update later tonight if this system is upgraded to depression status...which is entirely possible given it's current presentation in satellite imagery.

Florence a Hurricane and Getting Stronger

Updated: Sunday, 9/10/2006, 10:55AM EDT - Florence has strengthened overnight and become a hurricane.  Recon will be on the way out to determine exactly how strong Florence has become.  The current estimate is 80 MPM...but based on satellite imagery Florence is likely stronger.  We will know more around 2PM EDT...when recon has had some time to investigate...more later.

Florence Still a Tropical Storm...Bermuda Waits

Updated: Saturday, 9/9/2006, 10:10PM EDT - Florence has not gotten appreciably stronger during the day today...despite having an impressive satellite presentation.  The last report from recon from mid-afternoon showed pressures where actually up a little...and there are no indications from satellite that much has changed since that time.  So the perplexing watching and waiting continues for Bermuda...a large tropical storm is sitting off of their coast...and it's still expected to become a hurricane.  But the longer this takes...the better the news for Bermuda.

Otherwise...there is still no change in the forecast track or prognostic reasoning.

Elsewhere in the tropics...a tropical disturbance east of Florence continues to persist...and could develop some in the coming days.  Chances are...this system...even if it does develop...will turn out harmlessly to sea.  It's something to watch this weekend though.

Florence Finally Looking Like a Tropical Cyclone

Updated: Saturday, 9/9/2006, 12:50AM EDT - Florence is finally looking like a tropical cyclone in satellite imagery this evening.  Thunderstorm activity has taken on a more classical appearance...and it finally looks like Florence is going to start strengthening like all of the intensity models have been forecasting.  

There is no change in the forecast track or prognostic reasoning.  A very close pass to Bermuda...followed by a turn out to sea are in the cards...and it is looking less like there will be a threat to Canada...as the turn to sea to come a bit sooner than thought in the previous guidance.  But the jury is still out on that idea...and things could get very interesting if the cyclone phases just right with the westerlies...

Elsewhere in the tropics...a tropical disturbance east of Florence has become a little more active today...and could develop some in the coming days.  Chances are...this system...even if it does develop...will turn out harmlessly to sea.  It's something to watch this weekend though.

Florence Threatens Bermuda

Updated Thursday, 9/8/2006, 12:10AM EDT - Florence is not getting any stronger tonight...perplexing forecasters as to exactly why.  It appears there is no well-established inner-core...and the system is very spread out...almost 900 miles wide from end to end.  

So there is a little more than usual uncertainty in the intensity forecast...most of the factors favoring intensification are there...but so far...no strengthening.

However...the models remain in excellent agreement that this system will come very close to Bermuda over the weekend...as a category two hurricane.  

Elsewhere in the tropics...Florence is dominating the central Atlantic...and has eaten 2 tropical waves in the last few days.  The rest of the tropics are quiet tonight.

Florence Not Expected to Threaten Land

Updated Wednesday, 9/6/2006, 10:50PM EDT - There have been no significant changes with Florence this evening.  The center of the system is still difficult to locate...partially because the tropical storm is unusually large...and the center could be anyplace in the deeper thunderstorms.  

The great news is that the models have not changed their thinking on Florence.  They all agree the tropical storm will continue to intensify and become a major hurricane...but turn well away form land into the open Atlantic.  Well...may not completely away from land...a couple of models are suggesting a close pass to the Canadian Maritimes next week...so we will watch and wait to see exactly how strong Florence gets before then.  But right now...there are no indications this will bother the US coastline.

Elsewhere a recon mission was flown into an area of low pressure off of the SC/GA coast.  There wasn't much to write home about in there...only an elongated and poorly defined circulation...and further development is not anticipated as this system moves northeast.

The tropical wave to the east of Florence is disorganized...possibly due to interaction with Florence.  Some of the models want to develop this system in a few days...but right now Florence is the only game in town.  

Please tune

Florence Continuing Westward...No Change in Track

Updated Monday, 9/4/2006, 11:30PM EDT - Florence is moving mostly westward right now and has gotten a little stronger throughout the day.  The circulation is still large...and is encountering some southwesterly vertical shear...but there are large scale indications that the environment will become favorable for significant strengthening during the next 36 hours or so.  

So the idea is unchanged for the track...Florence will continue westward to west-northwestward for the next three days...and by the weekend it should be turning out to sea in front of the east coast.

However...we will watch the modeling trends closely.  In order for Florence to turn...the western portion of the subtropical ridge will need to erode as the global models are almost all currently forecasting to occur.  However...the exact evolution of this process is still unclear...so there is a small chance this could come west further than the NHC is currently forecasting.  Hopefully...if something like that is imminent...it will begin to show as westward shifts in the model guidance...we will see.

Elsewhere the wave to the east of Florence has not become better organized today...but still could become a tropical depression in the next day or so.  There is plenty of time to watch this feature...as it is way way out in the Atlantic.  More coverage on this wave as necessary...

TD 6 Has Not Strengthened Yet...Here's Why

Updated Monday, 9/4/2006, 9:40PM EDT - TD Six has not strengthened today...which is somewhat good news.  Southwesterly shear over the system has not allowed the convection to get well organized and concentrated.  It has also been battling some structure issues.  A second low-level circulation to the southwest of the depression has been getting in the way...somewhat disrupting the low level flow into the depression.

However...microwave imagery called QUIKSCAT has made two passes over this system today...once at about 5AM EDT...and a second about 5PM EDT.  The 5AM pass shows two centers of circulation in the parent wave...the weaker one to the south has been interfering with the inflow from the south for the depression to the north.  

However...the 5PM pass shows the "second circulation" has dissipated and the broad flow around the depression has become more cyclonic...and hence...favorable for upward motion near the center.  

Click here for am image of the two QUIKSCAT passes

So this is likely the reason we have not seen intensification so far...and now that the low-level flow has improved we should see a little strengthening...in fact deep thunderstorms are redeveloping over the center as I write this.

Also...the models are coming into better agreement that this will at least cross 60 west in the neighborhood of 20 north...a key coordinate.  Most experienced trackers know that systems passing near or south of 20N/60W have a much better chance of impacting the US than if a system passes north and east of that mark. 

Right now nobody is forecasting a US landfall...it is still way too early to make that call.  But the trend is changing...just like it always does.  Stay tuned. 

Still A Depression...but a Hurricane Forecast

Quick Update: Monday, 9/4/2006, 1:45AM EDT - Model guidance has shifted north for just about every model compared to their last full runs 12 hours ago...which is good news for now.  Of course...this is just one set of guidance...and it's not a good idea to get caught up one set of runs.  The next step is watching to see what the next full set of data suggests...and that will be out early this afternoon.

Regardless...I fully expect the NHC to shift their 5 day forecast north and east of the track produced in the 11PM advisory package.

More later today.

UPDATED: Sunday, 9/3/2006, 11:30PM EDT - There have been no changes in the forecast track or synoptic reasoning for the depression tonight.  The cyclone should slowly organize during the first part of the week...and become a hurricane by Friday...moving westward north of the Caribbean islands.  

It will be interesting to watch how the track guidance unfolds over the coming week.  With systems this far east...and with so little data available for modeling in the central Atlantic...the models can vary over time.  So I will be watching the trend in the guidance...if it begins to swing west for a few runs in a row...for example the NHC forecast track could shift southward.  If the trends shift north...so goes the track.

In any case we will be watching this throughout the week...and I will pass the trends along as they start to show up.

Tropical Depression Six Forms in the Atlantic

UPDATED: Sunday, 9/3/2006, 3:10PM EDT - It looks like we have our next numbered system in the Atlantic.  Tropical Depression Six will be upgraded in the 5PM advisory package.

This system, located way out in the eastern Atlantic, should continue to move to the northwest for the next two days or so...then turn back to the west as a huge mid-level ridge...forecast by all of the models to develop...builds into the central Atlantic.  This is going to make things very interesting as the week progresses.

There is PLENTY of time to watch this system...but it should continue to gradually organize and become a hurricane by mid-week.

For archived audio coverage of Ernesto on the TalkinTropics program, as it made landfall, click here. 

Caribbean Wave Fading...But Eastern Atlantic Active 

UPDATED: Sunday, 9/3/2006, 3:15AM EDT - The low-level swirl in the eastern Caribbean has not become better organized and is not expected to develop much...if at all over the next day or so.  The Recon mission scheduled into this swirl will most likely be cancelled later this morning.  Upper level winds do not appear to be very favorable for development right now...but could become somewhat more favorable early next week.

However...the eastern Atlantic is hopping...with two circulations very close to each other generating deep convection.  The furthest west...located near 12N 45W...is generating the most impressive thunderstorm activity of the two features.  However...the system further east...near 12N 38W...has a little less convection but better overall structure.  The Hurricane Center is expecting this circulation to ultimately develop and become our next tropical depression in the next day or so.

Models are wanting to take it northwestward in the next few days before bending it back to the west by mid-week.  This could become our first "long track" Cape Verde system since 2004...so this wave will be watched carefully as the week progresses.

Low Level Swirl Entering Caribbean...Generates Interest

UPDATED: Saturday, 9/2/2006, 12:05PM EDT - A low level swirl...which have been watching for a couple of days now...has begun to generate an increased amount of thunderstorm activity as it approaches the eastern Caribbean Sea.  This system had previously been fairly dry...without much if any thunderstorms...but the disconcerting part is...this system has always had a low-level circulation.

The Hurricane Center has noted that pressures are falling in the area...and has tasked a recon flight into the system tomorrow afternoon to investigate.  Upper level winds are not currently very favorable for development...but may relax a bit over the weekend.  This means that we now have another player to watch...and focus shifts toward this system much closer to home.  

Out further east...the system I talked about yesterday is continuing to slowly organize.  This system is probably going to become a tropical depression in the next 48 hours or so as it moves westward...for now.    

We covered Ernesto Thursday on the TalkinTropics streaming audio program.  To check out the archive, click here. 

Next Player Appearing on the Tropical Map

UPDATED: Friday, 9/1/2006, 7:05PM EDT - The tropical wave in the central Atlantic is getting a little better organized.  Although there are not currently any thunderstorms over the center of the surface low associated with this system, bands to the north and south are becoming a bit more convectively active this evening.  QUIKSCAT imagery also showed an almost closed low in the surface winds after a pass over the system early this morning.  

Although immediate development is not likely...this wave should continue to slowly organize over the next few days and I think this will be our next system to develop...most likely by the end of the weekend.  

Ernesto Now Ashore in NC...What's Next?

UPDATED: Friday, 9/1/2006, 1:15AM EDT - Ernesto has more or less completely come ashore now in North Carolina.  Heavy rains will continue for the next several hours...but it looks like the worst weather will be clearing the area by morning.

So now what?  Don't look now...but a low-level swirl in the central Atlantic is generating some thunderstorms tonight...for the first time.  Look near 17N 52.5W...it's there...and may become a concern over the next day or so.  

Elsewhere...there are two waves in the eastern Atlantic, both of which are expected to develop into tropical cyclones by the global models.  Looks we may very well see a burst of activity in the coming days.  Right on schedule for the peak of the hurricane season.

We covered Ernesto this evening on the TalkinTropics streaming audio program.  To check out the archive, click here. 

Ernesto Approaching Hurricane Status

UPDATED: Thursday, 8/31/2006, 5:15PM EDT - Ernesto's central pressure has come down to 991MB, and the winds are up to 70 MPH...just under hurricane strength.  With just a couple of hours before landfall, time is running out for this to become a hurricane.  Even if it does, it won't be a strong one, as there is little or no practical difference between a 70MPH tropical storm and a 75MPH hurricane.  As long as residents have been preparing for a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane, they should be ready for this threat.

We will cover Ernesto starting at 8:30PM EDT this evening on the TalkinTropics streaming audio program.  

Ernesto Strengthening Again

UPDATED: Thursday, 8/31/2006, 9:30AM EDT - Ernesto is getting a little stonger right now.  Satellite imagery, information from land-based radar, and reports from the aircraft investigating the storm all indicate that the winds are up and the organizational structure has improved.  The pressure is not down much from last night...the latest fix is 996MB...but that was a couple of hours ago, and very cold cloud tops have developed right over the possible center.

With these new developments...and possibly 12 more hours over water...Ernesto could still become a hurricane before landfall.  Although the difference between the forecast intensity and a minimal hurricane is small...residents should be paying close attention to developments in the next few hours.  The NHC may have no choice but to put up a hurricane warning for some portions of the NC/SC coast later this morning.  

We are going to close August with only one minimal hurricane and one tropical storm in the basin...no one foresaw this little overall activity.  As we move into September, the question has to be asked:  is this a trend...or is the bubble ready to pop leading to a hyperactive September?

Ernesto Exits Florida...Back to a Tropical Storm

UPDATED: Thursday, 8/31/2006, 12:15AM EDT -  Information from a NOAA weather buoy, and the Melbourne Doppler radar site confirm that Ernesto has regained tropical storm strength, with maximum sustained winds of 40MPH.  This will be reflected in the next advisory from the NHC.  Please note that this is not an indication that Ernesto is rapidly strengthening.  Ernesto was fully expected to return to tropical storm strength once it was fully over water.  

More updates tomorrow morning as conditions warrant.

UPDATED: Wednesday, 8/30/2006, 10:30PM EDT -  Ernesto is just about ready to come off of the Florida coast and should do so within the next hour or two.  From there...it has about a day...maybe just a little longer before reaching land again on the NHC forecast track.

Believe it or not the pressure has lowered from 1004MB at landfall yesterday to about 1000MB tonight...but part of this could be attributable to a lower overall pressure environment...and may not be a direct sign of any strengthening.  Sustained tropical storm force winds have not been observed anyplace in Florida today.

Ernesto should begin to strengthen a little before making what will be it's fourth and final landfall.  However...ingredients do not appear to be in place for it to become a hurricane again.  If such a thing were to occur...intensification would have to be pretty rapid and start almost the instant the center moves back out over water.  So...there will be a little time to observe and react if necessary...but right now the Hurricane Center is advising costal residents from GA to NC to prepare for a tropical storm.

Ernesto Still Inland...But Looking a Little Better Organized

UPDATED: Wednesday, 8/30/2006, 3:45PM EDT -  Ernesto is still inland over Florida, but something interesting seems to be happening.  Ernesto has developed a new burst of thunderstorm activity while over land, and banding in radar imagery from the Melborne site appears a bit better defined today.  There is also an impressive curved band to the south...and if Ernesto were over water...I would be concerned this is a sign of intensification.

Surface observations are not showing any tropical storm force winds in the state...so Ernesto is a depression right now.  But if the center works off land in the next 6-10 hours or so...given what seems to be happening...Ernesto may still have one more trick left in it's bag. It will be very intesting to see what happens over night tonight.  I don't expect to see Ernesto become a hurricane again, but this has been the most poorly behaved system I can remember.

Ernesto Inland as a Weakened Rain Producer

UPDATED: Wednesday, 8/30/2006, 1:05AM EDT -  Ernesto has now fully come in over the extreme southern Florida peninsula...as a weakened shell of it's former self...thanks to a prolonged encounter over rocky terrain.  The only thing remarkable about this event is that this system was able to survive as long as it has...I am completely shocked it was able to maintain a closed circulation after all that has happened to it.

Now...the big story will be what happens to Ernesto over Florida.  If it escapes land earlier than thought (this sounds familiar) it could easily become a hurricane before reaching the Carolina coast.  If it lingers...it may not be any stronger than it is now...and it could miss the coast all together.  

Ernesto Not Packing a Punch... 

UPDATED: Tuesday, 8/29/2006, 6:10PM EDT -  Conditions are about as calm as they can be for having a tropical storm.  We are in Islamorada, and right now, other than looking like a rainy day, there are not very many clues that a tropical storm is even present.

This is not suprising.  The inner core of Ernesto was ripped out by the mountains of Haiti and eastern Cuba...and with the center staying over land for such an extended period of time...it simply did not have the structure to reintensify.  This is great news for south Florida residents...who have been used to getting bad news from storms such as Wilma, Charley and Ivan in the last two years.

Needless to say, weather conditions are still not optimal as there are still strong bands around...and Ernesto could still intensify a little more before the center comes into the peninsula later this evening.  Residents should heed the advice of local officials and not venture out until the all-clear is given.

We are heading up to Miami now to see what becomes of some stronger bands of weather up there.  You can see what we see, when we see it, by subscribing to the site by following the link below.

I will also be checking in throughout the evening by calling into Internet Partnership Radio...starting at 8PM EDT this evening.

Heading to the Keys... 

UPDATED: Tuesday, 8/29/2006, 2:45PM EDT -  Ernesto is getting better organized in satellite imagery, and is looking impressive in radar, but has yet to strengthen.  However...there is a good chance that it will start to intensify until making landfall in extreme southern Florida before midnight.

I am on the road with Mark and James heading south to the upper Keys where we will cover this event live for HurricaneLiveNet.  You can see what we see, when we see it, by subscribing to the site by following the link below.

Ernesto On the Move...and So are We 

UPDATED: Tuesday, 8/29/2006, 9:45AM EDT -  Ernesto is on the move this morning.  The center of the cyclone emerged over water overnight and has redeveloped some deep convection...and has strengthened some.  Although the odds are this will not become a hurricane before reaching southern Florida, that outcome remains a possibility if the system can strengthen just a little more than is currently forecast.  

Colleagues Mark Sudduth and James Lewis are en-route to southern Florida and I will be joining them early this afternoon to gather video and data from the storm.  I do not know exactly where we will end up as of yet...it all depends on Ernesto.  More on that later today.

Ernesto Still Over Land...Less Likely to Become a Hurricane 

UPDATED: Monday, 8/28/2006, 11:20PM EDT -  As of now...Ernesto is still inland.  Thunderstorm activity is rapidly diminishing near the center...and the overall structure has deteriorated significantly since the evening began.

If there is anything Ernesto has shown us...it is that we really don't know.  It looks like Ernesto has completely weakened and may never recover from this serious pounding by land...which is great news for south Florida.  But Ernesto has done this before...and has frequently zigged when we thought it was going to zag.  

So watches are still up for the Florida coast...and residents should continue to prepare.  There is still a chance this system will re-strengthen overnight and tomorrow...and there is a small but decreasing chance this could be a hurricane at landfall.  As I mentioned before...overnight tonight is the critical period...and we will see where we are in the morning.  So...stay tuned.  One last night.

Colleague Mark Sudduth is still en-route to southern Florida and I will be joining him tomorrow morning to gather video and data from the storm...if necessary.  To check in on Mark's thoughts, visit hurricanetrack.com

South Florida Watching, Waiting for Ernesto

UPDATED: Monday, 8/28/2006, 6:20PM EDT -  The center of tropical storm Ernesto is becoming better defined on ground-based Cuban radar...and appears poised to emerge from the coast within the next few hours.  Thunderstorm activity has increased near this center of circulation, and will continue to do so as more and more of Ernesto moves back over the warm waters of the Florida Straights.

The next 12 to 18 hours are critical.  If Ernesto can redevelop a well-defined inner core...it could intensify rapidly and become a hurricane before landfall sometime tomorrow evening.  If the core is slow to organize...only gradual strengthening will take place...and south Florida, while getting some bad weather, will have dodged a bullet.  

Tonight at 8PM EDT,  I will be hosting an IPR special on Ernesto.  Joining us will be Dr Jeff Masters, Chief Meteorologist from the WeatherUnderground.  Obviously, we will get his thoughts on Ernesto.

Cuba Holds the Key to South Florida's Fate Now

UPDATED: Monday, 8/28/2006, 9:40AM EDT -  Ernesto is inland over eastern Cuba for now...but it looks like it is trying to take a short cut back out over water.  If the center emerges over water late this morning or early afternoon...the chances of it arriving along the Florida coast as a hurricane increase...as the NHC is counting on the rough terrain of eastern Cuba to disrupt Ernesto for another 18 hours or so.

Based on the latest information from satellite...I will not be surprised at all to see the forecast shift slightly north in the next advisory package.  I also expecting a northward extension of the Hurricane Watch to Palm Beach county and possible further north than that.

Stay tuned throughout the day as I will update when I can...and I will be hosting an IPR special on Ernesto starting at 8PM this evening.

Colleague Mark Sudduth is enroute to southern Florida and I will be joining him tomorrow morning to gather video and data from the storm.  I will provide more details on this as well, when possible.  To check in on Mark's thoughts, visit hurricanetrack.com

Finally we will initiate special coverage of this event on Internet Partnership Radio.  I will be calling in from the Florida coast, if necessary, later in the week. 

Ernesto Providing Few Clues Tonight

UPDATED: Monday, 8/28/2006, 12:10AM EDT -  This is my 11th year of watching tropical systems from the standpoint of forecaster...as opposed to interested citizen...and I simply cannot recall a time where so many signals were in conflict...with so little information available...with so much at stake.  

Ernesto has significant upward potential...it could become a powerful hurricane in the next couple of days given the right track.  But to be quite honest...everyone is currently having to guess at the exact center location due to all of the land interaction from earlier today...and deep pulses that may show the center are occurring in multiple locations...and are only providing small clues.

Recon won't be out there for another couple of hours...and we are entering the satellite eclipse period...where satellite imagery is simply not available until after 2AM EDT.  Synoptic drops happened tonight but the data show itself until the models come out in another couple of hours.

With no satellite...recon...or other tools such as reliable radar...who knows what will be there when I wake up in the morning?  It could be a dissipating cyclone...or an intensifying one that somehow avoided the high mountains of eastern Cuba.

The Hurricane Center still expects this to become a hurricane and ultimately impact south Florida.  I am tired...tomorrow will be a long day...so rather than sit up and wait for the picture to unfold...I am checking out for this evening...but I will summarize how this challenging package unwraps in the morning. 
 

Ernesto Back to a Tropical Storm - For Now

UPDATED: Sunday, 8/27/2006, 3:40PM EDT -  There have been a few subtle changes to Ernesto today, but nothing too significant in terms of the general forecast thinking.

The high mountains of Haiti and diurnal pulsing have disrupted Ernesto some...causing the cyclone to weaken back to tropical storm status.  However, the cyclone remains in a favorable environment...shear has weakened and once the center reemerges later this evening strengthening will resume.

Recon isn't able to give us as much information as they normally do...they are having to fly further up in the storm than they usually do because of the high mountains in the area...so we may not be getting the full intensity picture either.  It's possible pressures at the surface are lower...because they have to calculate the estimated pressure based on a higher altitude...which is more prone to error.

After this encounter with land...Ernesto will need to deal with eastern Cuba.  How Ernesto handles that interaction will make the largest determination on the eventual strength of the cyclone when it reaches the Florida peninsula early to mid week.  More on this later.

Ernesto Now a Hurricane - Forecast Track Shifts East

UPDATED: Sunday, 8/27/2006, 10:45AM EDT -  As expected, the NHC forecast track shifted eastward overnight...and has done so again with the 11AM advisory package.  The Hurricane Center is now expecting this to come very, very close to the southwestern coast of Florida...making a very close pass toward Naples and or Tampa Bay.  

Because of the shape of the Florida coast, lessons learned from Charley tell us that any minor fluctuation in track will make a big difference in where, exactly, the center crosses the coast.  But the big story today is that they are expecting a very close call for the western half of Florida from a category two hurricane by mid week.

The NOAA jets will be up there tonight to get a better picture of the environment around Ernesto...and this data will make its way into the overnight forecast package.  Either way...most of the state is now in the forecast cone of uncertainty, and residents just about anywhere in Florida should begin to dust off their hurricane plans. 

The new suite of models will be out in a few hours and I will update the page and kick out a podcast once they have finished.

Also, at least right now it looks like I will join colleague Mark Sudduth early next week for our mission...looking more and more likely to be on the Florida west coast.  I will provide more details on this as well, when possible.  To check in on Mark's thoughts, visit hurricanetrack.com

Finally we will initiate special coverage of this event on Internet Partnership Radio.  I will be calling in from the Florida coast, if necessary, later in the week.  More later.

Changes Occurring in the Model Guidance - 
Ernesto Not Behaving Very Well Tonight

Podcast #2 UPDATED: 12:00AM EDT:  Here is an updated Podcast update for Ernesto...this will appear on Podweather and run overnight tonight on IPR.  It is about 7 minutes long. 

UPDATED: Sunday, 8/27/2006, 2:30AM EDT -  All of the guidance is in...and it is not lining up well with the latest NHC forecast track.  The GFS...NOGAPS...UKMET and CMC solutions are increasing the threat to South Florida...leaving the GFDL...which has been the most reliable model so far...as the westerly outlier...but still threatening the southern 1/3 of the state.

The NHC will most likely shift their forecast track to the east at the next advisory...and residents if the Keys and south Florida should begin making preparations for a category 1 or 2 hurricane.  More as information becomes available.

UPDATED: Sunday, 8/27/2006, 12:45AM EDT -  A disquieting shift is occurring in the early results from the global models.  Two of the more reliable models have completed their solutions through three days...and both are bringing a hurricane near or over the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula.  Of course, this would not give Ernesto time to strengthen like it would have unbothered over the Gulf, but would have implications for residents further east than expected earlier today.  All south Florida residents...east or west coast...should now keep a close eye on Ernesto throughout the day on Sunday.

UPDATED: Sunday, 8/27/2006, 12:00AM EDT - Ernesto appears to be getting better organized this evening and has apparently developed deep thunderstorms all around the center...recon is on the way to confirm.  If this is the case...Ernesto may be closing in on hurricane status.

There are no major changes to the forecast thinking tonight.  The Hurricane Center is still forecasting Ernesto to become a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  It does appear the concern for a western Gulf landfall has all but diminished...as the global models have more or less abandoned their earlier solutions taking Ernesto further west.

This is going to provide...perhaps...a very favorable environment for intensification...as the upper level flow will be moving along the same direction as the cyclone itself...inducing little if any directional shear.  The NHC is factoring in some land interaction with Cuba in the intensity forecast...but I think there is something to be said for ocean-atmosphere coupling perhaps helping to keep the center off-shore as long as possible...so we will see if there is a prolonged trip over central or western Cuba.  If there is...the system could be weaker than forecast...if the interaction is less...Ernesto could be stronger than the NHC forecast by the middle of the week. 

Ernesto Strengthening...All Eyes on the Gulf 

Podcast UPDATED: 3:45PM EDT:  Here is a quick Podcast update for Ernesto...this will appear on Podweather later this afternoon.  It is about 4 minutes long.

UPDATED: Saturday, 8/26/2006, 12:00PM EDT - The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting Ernesto to become a powerful hurricane by the middle of this week.   All of the available guidance shows Ernesto entering the Gulf on a track that will threaten some portion of the US coastline, but it is currently unclear where the specific threat lies.  Some of the models are suggesting a more westward track toward Texas, some are calling for a threat as far east as the Florida Panhandle.  

This means that residents from Texas to Florida should watch developments with Ernesto in the next few days.  Air Force reconnaissance and NOAA research aircraft will begin flying missions in and around the storm to sample the environment in an effort to get a better read on the steering currents in the coming days.  These missions will provide more information on the structure, intensity and ultimate track of Ernesto.  So follow along here as the pieces start coming together.

Also, at least right now it looks like I will join colleague Mark Sudduth early next week for our mission on the Gulf Coast.  I will provide more details on this as well, when possible.  To check in on Mark's thoughts, visit hurricanetrack.com

Finally we will initiate special coverage of this event on Internet Partnership Radio.  I will be calling in from the coast, if necessary, later in the week.  More later.

Quick Update:  Ernesto Forms in Caribbean 

UPDATED: Friday, 8/24/2006, 5:50PM EDT - Despite encountering upper shear right now...Ernesto has been born in the east-central Caribbean sea today.  The shear is not forecast to persist very long...and the National Hurricane Center is forecasting Ernesto to become a hurricane in the next few days as it enters the Gulf of Mexico.  More including detailed analysis late this evening.

MW

UPDATED: Friday, 8/24/2006, 12:35AM EDT - Tropical Depression 5 is slowly getting organized tonight...with deep thunderstorm activity developing right over the low-level circulation...but then it is getting spread out to the east by some upper shear.  

Global forecast models depict some shear in the area for the next 2 days...but thereafter there is a good possibility that winds will let up some as upper conditions change in the western Caribbean.  As a result, the hurricane center is now expecting this to become Ernesto tomorrow...and a hurricane in the western Caribbean by the end of the weekend.  

Tropical Depression 5 Develops  in Caribbean 

UPDATED: Thursday, 8/24/2006, 6:25PM EDT - Tropical Depression 5 has formed in the far eastern Caribbean sea...but is likely to continue to gradually intensify as it moves to the west and northwest through the weekend...and will be in the western Caribbean by that time.

The Hurricane Center is expecting this to get close to hurricane strength by then.  Just a quick update for now, but we will discuss this in detail on tonight's edition of TalkinTropics...starting at 8:30PM EDT.  For more information or to listen in...visit IPR.

MW

Strong Tropical Wave Approaching Caribbean 

UPDATED: Thursday, 8/24/2006, 6:50AM EDT - Just taking a quick look this morning...the system east of the islands has taken a rather odd shape over night.  Thunderstorm activity is still deep, but not symmetrical, and first available visible imagery is not suggestive of a closed low level circulation.  

Development is still possible, but I am not quite as bullish on the immediate development idea as I was last night...we will watch and see how this unfolds this morning...and recon may investigate later today.  If today's flight isn't cancelled the plane should be in the system around 2PM EDT...

We will discuss this and more on tonight's edition of TalkinTropics, starting at 8:30PM EDT.  See you there!

MW

UPDATED: Thursday, 8/24/2006, 12:05AM EDT - Debby continues to spiral out to the open ocean over the eastern Atlantic this evening.  And while Debby may ultimately become the first hurricane of the 2006 season, a more significant threat lies closer to home.

The tropical wave...discussed last night...is now approaching the Lesser Antilles has become much better organized this evening, and will become our next tropical depression...or tropical storm...sometime on Wednesday.  

Although the system is stretched horizontally, banding features have become better defined tonight and very deep convection is occurring near and over the estimated center of the system.  The computer guidance is suggesting this will continue to the west and northwest over time...while gradually strengthening to a hurricane before the end of the weekend...of course if the system develops.  

Initially...I am concerned this system will pass very close to Jamaica and near western Cuba in the next 5 days before heading toward the Gulf of Mexico.  It is...of course...much too early to determine if this system will even develop and or impact the US.  But it's never too early to put out the notice that we are now in the peak of the season...and a tropical system is getting organized in an area where storms that ultimately impact land often develop. Click Here to view satellite imagery for this wave.

Longer term...this is vastly more of a concern for land than Debby...so residents of the Caribbean will need to keep a close eye on this system during the next few days - MW

Debby is Named...Now What? 

UPDATED: Tuesday, 8/22/2006, 11:45PM EDT - Tropical Storm Debby has developed way out there in the eastern Atlantic.  The storm has battled dry air and a relative lack of deep convection all day, but has managed to strengthen enough to become the 4th named storm of the season.  While there is some disagreement among the forecast models, and forecasters for that matter, on exactly how far west Debby will get...two things are certain.  Storms this far north this far east rarely make it across the Atlantic...and if that were to occur we will have PLENTY of lead time to watch it...unlike the 2005 season where lead time was not a luxury afforded to us.

Probably the bigger story...to me at least...is the trend toward organization in the central Atlantic.  A tropical wave is located about 725 miles east of the Lesser Antilles this evening.  Although thunderstorm activity along the wave is minimal right now, the wave has taken a more circular appearance overall throughout the day today.  This is usually a sign that a wave like this is gradually getting better organized.  Here is a recent satellite image of this wave.

This wave is moving westward and is entrenched beneath the subtropical ridge.  This means it will move into the Caribbean this week.  Currently...there is some dry...stable air in the environment...especially to the north of the system.  However...there is probably enough moisture within the envelope to go ahead and allow this developmental trend to continue...and I expect this will become our next Tropical Depression within the next 24 to 36 hours.

Longer term...this is more of a concern for land than Debby...so residents of the Caribbean will need to keep a close eye on this system during the next few days - MW

Tropical Depression Forms: Well Organized 

UPDATED: Monday, 8/21/2006, 11:30PM EDT - Tropical Depression Four has formed today...as expected...way way out in the eastern Atlantic.  The depression has a well-organized circulation structure...but currently lacks a well-defined inner core.  Nevertheless...this system is forecast to become our first 2006 Atlantic hurricane as it moves off to the west or northwest in the coming days.  

Chances are it will recurve harmlessly into the tropical Atlantic.  However, there are some indications that the ridge steering the cyclone is stronger than advertised by the modeling.  We will need to keep an eye on that in the next few days...the NHC mentioned the possibility of this becoming a "west runner"...a term used to describe cyclones that move from east to west across the Atlantic...during the next several days.  So while the odds are in favor of a turn out to sea...the longer the system moves westward...the more we will need to watch it in the coming days.

Serious Player Emerges from Africa

UPDATED: Monday, 8/21/2006, 12:10AM EDT - The tropical wave that has just come off of the African coast is well-organized this evening.  It is situated near 10N 20W or so...and is currently moving westward at approximately 15 knots.  I do think this will become a depression within the next 24 hours.

Global models want to slow it down and slowly turn it out to sea.  I am not so sure as of yet.  It's hard to see the specific features causing this in the modeling...and until the slowdown occurs I am keeping the door open for some westward motion for the next several days...which is normal for August.  More on that Monday evening after a couple of model cycles run through.  If there is one thing we know...we know we have PLENTY of time to watch this system,

Whoops...Wrong Wave

UPDATED: Saturday, 8/20/2006, 12:50AM EDT - The tropical wave developing in the modeling is not the one I mentioned last night.  It's the one behind it.  

The global models are more or less in agreement that we will see tropical development near 30 west deep in the ITCZ in 3 days or so.  That is too far east for the existing tropical wave...now at 20W and moving westward.  It will be 10 degrees west of that position by then.

However...a larger system with a more significant envelope will be moving off of the coast in another couple of days.  This system...I think...is the one the models are grabbing.  

So perhaps I am off by a couple of days...but the idea that the tropics are getting ready to jump still holds.  Yes...conditions are hostile right now...especially in the western Atlantic.  But if conditions were favorable...hello...we would have already seen development.  This is all going to change...and I think the people calling for a slow season will need to reevaluate their positions as August comes to a close.

We discussed this on the TalkinTropics program, which streamed Thursday on Internet Partnership Radio.  To listen to the show in the archive, click here.  We answered all sorts of excellent questions from listeners from New Jersey, Virginia, Florida and Alabama tonight!  Thanks for all of the great discussion points...it really made the show go well!  

Changes Underway in the Tropical Atmosphere

UPDATED: Friday, 8/18/2006, 12:45AM EDT - Moisture content is building in the eastern Atlantic out ahead of the wave we discussed last night.  The GFS and Canadian models are sniffing out trouble in the Caribbean and Atlantic...and surface pressures across the basin are letting up.  

What does all of this mean?  It means the tropics are getting ready to pop...and by this time next week we could have 2 or 3 systems to deal with.  The GFS is latching onto the system coming off of the African coast and developing a well-defined hurricane...at low latitudes moving westward through the next 5 days.  It is also suggesting we will see some development coming out of the Caribbean and into the Gulf into next week.  

This is what we have been talking about for the last several weeks.  Within the next few days the tropics are likely going to become very active.  Pressures are going down...moisture content is going up...and the active season so many experts have been calling for is ready to kick in.

The Unusual Quiet Continues...For Now

UPDATED: Wednesday, 8/16/2006, 11:45PM EDT - Apart from a very pedestrian-looking semi-tropical area of low pressure meandering off of the southeast US coast...the tropics are unusually quiet for this time of year.  Recon did check that area out today and found a very weak...closed circulation.  However...upper-level winds are not all that favorable for development right now...and will get even more unfavorable in the next few days.  Prognosis for additional development:  Negative.

Elsewhere...I am keeping an eye on a new tropical wave scheduled to come off of the African coast...at a low latitude...sometime in the next 24 to 36 hours.  Although the global models aren't too excited about this system yet...I do think this system may have a shot at becoming a named storm in the deep tropics as we get into next week.  Stay tuned.

And if you have trouble sleeping, there is always the Talkin Tropics program, which ran again this past Thursday on Internet Partnership Radio.  To listen to the show in the archive, click here.  And don't forget we will be on again Thursday night at 9PM EDT for the next show...so tune in and get the latest information!  

MW

Tropics Relatively Quiet

UPDATED: Tuesday, 8/15/2006, 1:10AM EDT - The Caribbean wave didn't develop...a well-organized wave is already heading northwestward in the far eastern Atlantic...and some in-close frontal business east of Florida is showing no current signs of development.  

That is as quiet as it gets for the beginning of the "prime time" of hurricane season...which starts today, August 15th, and lasts for 60 days.    Almost all US landfalls occur and basin-wide hurricanes develop in this 2 month period of time. 

So we are off to a good start.  However...as I have said before...sometime not too long from now the switch will be thrown...and these benign-looking waves will all of a sudden become players on the tropical map.  Just keep on watching.   

And if you have trouble sleeping, there is always the Talkin Tropics program, which ran again this past Thursday on Internet Partnership Radio.  To listen to the show in the archive, click here

MW

Uhm...About That Quiet Thing...

UPDATED: 8/13/2006 1:40PM EDT - A resources permitting recon flight is on the way out to the eastern Caribbean to investigate a tropical wave that has become better organized...literally over night.  This a small system...but has a definite spin evident in satellite imagery...and may become a tropical depression later today as it continues on to the west-northwest.

If it develops...the Hurricane Center is planning to check into the system with recon twice tomorrow as well.

It's early in the process...but if this system does become a depression...it will continue on mostly westward for the next 5 days or so...and get into the western Caribbean later in the week.  Right now it is much to soon to determine if this system will become an eventual threat to the US.  

And if you have trouble sleeping, there is always the Talkin Tropics program, which ran again this past Thursday on Internet Partnership Radio.  To listen to the show in the archive, click here

MW

Enjoy Your Summer...There's Nothing to See Here

UPDATED: 8/12/2006 11:30PM EDT - There are not many ways to type this...so I will just type it.

There is zero...zip...nada going on in the tropics right now.  

I expect we will see this persist for another week or two.  The global models aren't even sniffing out so much as a weak tropical depression for the next 120 hours or so.  But sometime late in the month, it will be as if some magically threw the tropical on/off switch...from off to on of course...and rather than having no areas of concern...we could have 3 or 4 spring up all at once.  This is just how it usually works in a normal year.

So...sit back...relax and enjoy these hot summer days.  We'll let you know when something to watch pops up.

And if you have trouble sleeping, there is always the Talkin Tropics program, which ran again this past Thursday on Internet Partnership Radio.  To listen to the show in the archive, click here

To read the El Nino updates...click on the links below.

BOM El Nino Wrapup as of 8/9/2006

CPC Diagnostic ENSO Discussion

MW

All is Quiet in the Atlantic...For Now

UPDATED: 8/11/2006 12:20AM EDT - The tropical wave we had been following has completely fallen apart in the last 24 hours...which was not entirely unexpected.  So with that system out of the way...the Atlantic basin is very quiet...which is a good thing.  I do not expect we will see much in the way of development anywhere for the next week or so...at least.  We are...after all still several days from the onset of the most active 60 day period in the Atlantic.  

The Bureau of Meteorology and the Climate Prediction Center here in the states have both issued their updated El Nino predictions.  BOM says neutral...the CPC thinks there is a coin flip chance for a weak El Nino by the end of the year.  Either way...a warm ENSO event won't kick in fast enough to help keep the Atlantic quiet for the peak of the season...at least.  

We discussed these ideas plus more on the Talkin Tropics program tonight on Internet Partnership Radio.  To listen to the show in the archive, click here.

To read the El Nino updates discussed here...click on the links below.

BOM El Nino Wrapup as of 8/9/2006

CPC Diagnostic ENSO Discussion

MW

Tropical Wave Having Trouble Staying Together 

UPDATED: 8/9/2006 10:10PM EDT - Recon was unable to find a low level center in their trip into the tropical wave...now in the islands.  There are two pretty straight-forward reasons why this wave won't develop in the short term...and may never become a US threat even if it does.

First of all...it is moving very fast...at least at the surface.  The center has been moving at 27 knots for the last day or so...which is extremely fast for westward moving systems in the deep tropics.  Typically, waves have a difficult closing off a west wind moving that fast.  

Second...and FOR DAYS the modeling has been very clear this would be the case...the flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere is much faster out of the east than it is in the mid layers...causing directional shear.  This has caused the low level thunderstorm support to race out from the mid-level circulation earlier today...which means the low-level part of the wave now has to create a new batch of thunderstorms.

Problem is...every time the system builds a mid-center above the stronger flow...the low half races out and leaves the rest behind.  The spread in the BAM models between the mid and low level runs continues to suggest this will be the case...and as long as this is happening...sustained development simply will not occur.  The system will never be vertically stacked...and this is one of the reasons why the global models continue to suggest little or no development.

Finally...the ridging to the north is not going anywhere...which means this it will go right through the Caribbean and into Mexico...whether it develops or not.

Looks like this is going to be a quiet rest of the week for the tropics...

Recon To Fly Today...Wave Making a Comeback 

UPDATED: 8/9/2006 10:50AM EDT - Thunderstorm activity associated with the wave we've been watching has increased and become more concentrated this morning.  The Hurricane Center will go ahead and fly a scheduled flight into the system this afternoon to determine if a tropical depression...or tropical storm has developed.

Although the global models still don't seem to like this system very much...there are some subtle changes in the intensity guidance which hint that conditions may not be quite as unfavorable as thought yesterday.

More later on.

Tropical Wave Has Become Disorganized 

UPDATED: 8/8/2006 10:30PM EDT - Satellite imagery from this evening suggests the tropical wave we've been tracking the last few days have become less organized tonight...and may have completely lost the low pressure previously associated with the feature.

The wave has been moving very rapidly to the west lately...and it has been moving through a dry environment for a couple of days.  We will continue to keep an eye on it through the week...but it looks like the prospect for additional development have decreased considerably. 

MW

Tropical Wave Still Organized...But Not a Depression Tonight

UPDATED: 8/7/2006 9:45PM EDT - Thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic has decreased since yesterday.  While the low level structure of the system remains organized, satellite and water vapor imagery shows the wave is embedded in a fairly dry environment...and has not become appreciably better organized since this morning.  Also...there appears to be some easterly shear over the wave, giving a stretched out appearance in satellite imagery.

Statistical intensity guidance suggests that conditions for development may not improve much for the next couple of days...but if the structure of the wave remains well organized...environmental conditions may improve by mid week.

Down the road...there is considerable spread in the track guidance with some very reliable models taking the system southward into South America of all places (this almost never happens)...while others bring it north of the islands.  It's useless to speculate on which of these scenarios are valid given we don't have an actual closed low out there yet.  I'll explore that more if the system develops.

MW

Activity Shifting to Eastern Atlantic - Updated

UPDATE: 8/6/2006 10:45PM EDT - Thunderstorm activity near the apparent center of the tropical wave in the far-eastern Atlantic has become deeper and more concentrated this evening.  The Hurricane Center is now suggesting this wave could become a tropical depression with the next day or two as the it progresses westward.  If this system develops, and I do think it will become a depression sometime on Monday, we will have a long time to watch and wait...as it is still thousands of miles away from any landmass on this side of the Atlantic.

It's worth noting that as busy as the 2005 season was, we didn't have a system develop in the deep tropics and move westward...intact...for days.  These "long track" systems will probably return this season, as the atmospheric conditions from last season are simply not in place for 2006.  The good news is that 3 of 4 systems that develop this far east never make landfall in the US.   

8/6/2006 3:00PM EDT - While Chris is showing no signs of reorganization, the eastern Atlantic is a different story.  A large tropical wave has become a bit better organized since yesterday, and could become our next tropical depression later this week.

Currently, there is little deep thunderstorm activity near the center of the system, but there are well-defined curved cloud bands to the north and south, classic signs of organization.  

This is the tropical wave the global models have been developing the last few days.  Interestingly, they are not nearly as excited about it's prospects now...and of all of the models...only the hurricane specific GFDL carries it through without dissipating the system in the next 5 days.  

In any case...this wave is moving slowly for tropical systems at this time of year...and will continue to move westward no matter what happens for the next several days.  If the system does become a tropical storm anytime soon, chances are it will be drawn out of the deep tropics by the end of the week.  A well-defined trough is forecast to develop in the western Atlantic by all of the computer guidance, which if it happens, should turn the system northwestward. 

Of course, one thing we know is that we never know for sure with these systems way out in the Atlantic...so we will keep an eye on it this week. 

MW

Chris Weakened and Sheared

8/4/2006 6:00PM - Chris is losing it's fight against unfavorable atmospheric conditions and has weakened today to a tropical depression.  Although the Hurricane Center is keeping the possibility of redevelopment open, Chris could just as easily weaken even further and become an open wave before ever reaching the Gulf of Mexico.

Of course you never know about these systems...so residents un the southern Gulf should continue to watch this system over the weekend.  

Elsewhere the computer models are suggesting something will try to get going in the eastern Atlantic next week.  Although there are some tropical waves moving across the Atlantic right now...there is really no sign of any systems getting organized over the next few days.

The good news in all of this is that south Florida, the Keys and the Gulf Coast may have dodged Chris (we will see).  The bad news is, the peak of the season which lasts through late October, where the vast majority of  most hurricanes occur, doesn't begin for another 2 weeks.

MW

Chris Hanging On as a Tropical Storm

8/3/2006 10:50PM - Chris is defying the odds once again tonight.  Air Force recon in the system a few hours ago still found flight level winds strong enough to support tropical storm status for now.  And just when it looked like Chris was going to quietly fade away...

Deep thunderstorm activity has redeveloped on the southeast side of the exposed low-level center.  Although Chris is moving through a relatively stable environment, this thunderstorm activity may be close enough to the center...and deep enough...to keep it as a storm over night.  By the weekend, atmospheric conditions ahead of the system are expected to get somewhat more favorable for redevelopment/intensification...in fact the SHIPS model no longer is forecasting weakening to a tropical depression!

All this means is that it isn't over yet...and residents in Cuba and unfortunately the Keys will need to keep an eye on this system overnight and Friday.  Although the forecast track is well south of the Keys right now...Chris has not been well behaved...and has shown a tenacious knack for dealing with harsh environments.  In fact...conditions may have already been as hostile as they will get...

Chris Developing a Split Personality

8/3/2006 12:20AM - New readers of this site...beware...this is going to get more technical than I usually like to get.

I've been watching radar out of the San Juan, Puerto Rico NWS office all night...the radar-indicated low level bands are not lining up at all with the apparent center in radar...they are further north than they should be for a system with this radar presentation. We know the earth curves with height...and as a result...given the distance the apparent radar center is from the radar site, the "apparent center" is still 10,000 feet from the surface.  It's pretty clear Chris is a tilted vortex.

Shortwave IR imagery (used to spot low-clouds at night) is showing us why we apparently have bands undercutting the radar circulation. The low level bands are rotating around the low level center...which is NOT the radar indicated feature...the actual low center of the system is displaced to the NW of the radar "center".

The low level circulation is clearly shooting out much like Debby did in 2000...and it is moving into a relatively stable atmosphere. It is exposed plain as day in the IR2 imagery.

There are 3 things we know:

1. This is a TILTED vortex. The more separation we get between the radar indicated mid level center and the low center...the less likely deep convection will be sustained long term.

2. Redevelopment around the current low center (moving westward) is not very likely given the stable environment it is moving into.

3. The best chance Chris has for surviving in the next day or so is by redeveloping a low level center under the existing mid level center...once it gets decoupled.  This decoupling is probably going to happen over night tonight.

Stay tuned.

Chris Forecast to become a Hurricane

8/1/2006 11:15PM - Chris has continued to become better organized despite insistence to the contrary from the Global Models today.  The Hurricane Center is forecasting this to go ahead and strengthen to a hurricane within the next day or so...and maintain hurricane strength throughout the next 5 days.  

Of course I had my doubts about the dissipation idea last night...and now the big question becomes where will Chris go?  Will it stay south and encounter the rough terrain of the Greater Antillies?  Or will it stay far enough north to strengthen over warmer waters?

We will watch this in the coming days.  Residents...right now...should concentrate on doing everything they should have done on June 1st to get ready for hurricane season and watch this system closely in the coming days.

Tropical Depression Three Forms...Not Expected to Strengthen...For Now

8/1/2006 12:30AM - The National Hurricane Center has upgraded the tropical disturbance west of the islands to Tropical Depression Three.  However, they are not expecting it to strengthen much, and the forecast is for it to continue more or less to the west over the coming days, and not become a tropical storm.

However, as I am writing this tonight on the first day of August, thunderstorm activity around the depression is on the increase, and I would not be surprised at all if the system defies the official forecast and becomes tropical storm Chris later in the day on Tuesday.

Residents in the islands and throughout the Caribbean should keep a close eye on this system.  Although it is forecast to dissipate in the next 3 days...there is a chance it could persist well beyond that time.

Tropics Mostly Quiet...But...

6/29/2006 11:45PM - There are two areas worth watching, but neither seems to be a big concern for development in the short term.  An area of disturbed weather has developed in the Bay of Campechee.  Although this is a climatologically favorable area for development at this time of year, strong upper level winds will probably preclude development for the next couple of days.  It is worth watching over the weekend.

The second is a sheared tropical wave passing through the central Caribbean Sea.  Again, upper level winds are not favorable for development here, either.

We talked about these systems, and had an in-depth discussion with Mark Sudduth, who is in the Gulf Coast region this week, during our TalkinTropics program this week.  To hear more, check out the program in the archives:

We Were TalkinTropics Thursday Night

6/22/2006 11:55PM EDT - We were TalkinTropics again Thursday night as we discussed the system in the Bahamas, aired our interviews with Billy Wagner and Daniel Noah, and addressed whether or not El Nino is coming...you can check the archived version of the program here:

TalkinTropics for 6/22/2006

Accuweather Meteorologist Joe Bastardi in the Archive

6/15/2006 11:45PM EDT - Please take a listen to the archive...we spoke with Joe Bastardi, Senior Meteorologist from Accuweather, about any number of topics relating to tropical storms and hurricanes, long range forecasting, and more.  

The interview with Joe lasted well over an hour...so sit back, relax and check it out in the archives:

TalkinTropics with Guest Joe Bastardi 6/15/2006

Alberto Changing Little Tonight, still could become a Hurricane 

6/12/2006 11:45PM EDT - Alberto has lost a lot of its deep convection tonight, but remains a strong tropical storm with a small window to become a hurricane before making landfall sometime on Tuesday.  

There are two distinct concerns right now.  The Florida big bend is especially prone to storm surge, even from a strong tropical storm, and there is a possibility for 8 to 10 feet of surge above normal tide levels.  Second, there is a tornado threat from bands associated with Alberto, and this threat will be ongoing through the overnight hours as people are sleeping.  Central and northern Florida residents should be prepared to react quickly should weather conditions warrant.

Also, don't forget you can get first-hand accounts and streaming video of the storm, unfiltered, unedited and live from Mark Sudduth as he travels to the Florida panhandle for the landfall of Alberto.  I will not be back from vacation on time to join him, but you can by signing up for HurricaneLiveNet. Click the banner to find out how:

Live Alberto Coverage from IPR and HurricaneLiveNet 

6/12/2006 5:30PM EDT - Please listen to continuing Alberto coverage on Internet Partnership Radio.  We will give you firsthand analysis of the storm and keep you up to date on any important changes you will need to be aware of.  To listen in right now using Windows Media, CLICK HERE.

I will also be preparing a video update on Alberto later this evening.  Please check back here to get the details on that update.

Also, don't forget you can get first-hand accounts and streaming video of the storm, unfiltered, unedited and live from Mark Sudduth as he travels to the Florida panhandle for the landfall of Alberto.  I will not be back from vacation on time to join him, but you can by signing up for HurricaneLiveNet. Click the banner to find out how:

As for Alberto itself, there are no major changes to report at this time.  It is important to remember that because of the shape of the Florida Gulf coast, either a storn tropical storm or a weak hurricane can bring significant surge to the region.  Residents in the threatened area should heed advice of local officials and be prepared to act to protect life and property.

In addition, since tropical storm force winds exist well to the east of the center of the system, residents along the Florida Gulf Coast could be ready for them today.  Also, a tornado or two can't be ruled out, so residents should stay alert for changing weather conditions.  

Alberto Forecast to Become a Hurricane 

6/12/2006 1:10PM EDT - The center of Alberto has reformed further to the northeast, nearest the deeper thunderstorm activity, and has intensified.  As of 11AM EDT the winds have climbed to 70MPH, and we could be dealing with the seasons first hurricane before landfall occurs in the Florida big-bend in the next 24 hours or so.   

Because of the shape of the coast, either a storn tropical storm or a weak hurricane can bring significant surge to the region.  Residents in the threatened area should heed advice of local officials and be prepared to act to protect life and property.

In addition, since tropical storm force winds exist well to the east of the center of the system, residents along the Florida Gulf Coast could be ready for them today.  Also, a tornado or two can't be ruled out, so residents should stay alert for changing weather conditions.  

Alberto Getting a Little Stronger 

6/12/2006 10:15AM EDT - As Alberto begins to move to the northeast, directional shear has been reduced a bit and the tropical storm has become a little better organized today.  Thunderstorms are getting a little closer to the center and there is more deep convection associated with the system.  As of 8AM EDT the NHC estimates the winds at 50MPH, and there is some opportunity for additional stremgthening before the center comes ashore sometime tomorrow.  

Since tropical storm force winds exist well to the east of the center of the system, residents along the Florida Gulf Coast could be ready for them today.  Also, a tornado or two can't be ruled out, so residents should stay alert for changing weather conditions.  

Tropical Storm Alberto Forms...Barely 

6/11/2006 11:15AM EDT - Data from the aircraft inside the system has confirmed that we indeed have a tropical storm.  But just barely.  Alberto looks like a sheared system in satellite imagery...and upper-level winds are not expected to get any more favorable for additional development.

The center is a bit further west than anticipated but it may already be making a more northerly turn, and tropical storm watches may issued for the northeast Gulf coast later today.  Strengthening to hurricane intensity seems unlikely.

First Tropical Depression of the Season Forms 

6/10/2006 12:00PM EDT - Only 10 days into the hurricane season, and we have our first tropical depression of the season.  Tropical Depression One is located in the northwest Caribbean sea and is not well-organized right now...however...it is a big rain producer.

Finding the center of this system is difficult with perhaps multiple circulations rotating around a broader low pressure center.  Until the system consolidates significant strengthening is unlikely.  This also compounds the track forecast, since not having a single center makes the initialization of the models with the correct information difficult.  

The global models are all over the place with this system, with various solutions for track and intensity.  They all agree that upper level winds will not be very favorable one this system gets into the Gulf of Mexico, and there are no indications at this time that this system will become a hurricane.  Since we know very little about tropical cyclone intensity changes, residents along the Gulf Coast, especially in western Florida and the panhandle area, should watch this system closely.

Caribbean System Better Organized 

6/9/2006 2:45PM EDT -  Satellite imagery of the western Caribbean today is showing a system with signs of increased organization since yesterday, and it may not be more than another day or two before we see development into the seasons first tropical depression.  A recon plane is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow if it is still showing signs of development.

The model guidance remains conflicted with solutions for a realtively weak system all over the Gulf of Mexico from east to west.  The model concensus from overnight split the difference, leaving the system stationary near the Yucatan in late forcast period.  However...the system appears to be further east today and if this trend continues, the odds of the system getting caught under a ridge and moving into the western Gulf are reduced.  Of course, it is just far too early to tell if this system is even going to develop, let alone where it is going to go.  We'll just have to keep an eye on it over the weekend.

MW

Close-In Development Possible - And Guest Host Tonight

6/8/2006 11:45AM EDT -  The National Hurricane Center is keeping a close eye on an area of disturbed weather near the Yucatan this morning.  While most of the broad area of low pressure is currently located over land, the system is expected to move slowly northward over the next couple of days and emerge over water,  where global models are suggesting it has a shot at some development.  There is considerable uncertainty over if it develops at all...but if it does...will it get grabbed by the trough to the east and move into the eastern Gulf, or will it get caught under a ridge and move further westward?  The NHC track models are going with the first option for now...but I wouldn't read too much into them yet.

Please join us for TalkinTropics tonight at 9PM EDT.  I am on vacation this week, but the program will be guest-hosted Mark Sudduth with Jesse Bass and James Lewis.  You can listen in by clicking here.  

Watching for an El Nino

6/7/2006 12:15AM EDT -  Climate signals have changed significantly in the past 45 days or so.  Looking subsurface in the tropical Pacific, all of the cool anomalies have dissipated since late April, leaving the Pacific neutral or warm in every region.  This, at first glance, would suggest that we are perhaps seeing the onset of an El Nino event, which would be very good news for hurricane wary residents of the US.

Not so fast, unfortunately.  Although these indicators are nice to see, there aren't any clear signals from the atmosphere that we are seeing a transition to a warm ENSO event.  Cloudiness near the date line in the tropical Pacific, when enhanced, is a pretty good signal that a Nino is brewing.  However, analysis suggests that cloudiness is running below normal in this region.  Also, the warming we are seeing may be a result of seasonal variations of the trade winds and not a significant long term signal that something is changing.

Also, the Atlantic is running well above normal SST wise, and we are still in a hard time period to predict what is going to happen with El Nino.  By the end of the month the El Nino story should be more or less written.  But right now, while we watch, my guess is we are still looking at a mostly neutral season, with perhaps an El Nino getting going by late in the hurricane season.  Perhaps this will be enough to shut down the Caribbean in October, maybe not.  We will all just have to watch and wait.

East Coast Trough?

6/5/2006 11:30PM EDT -  If you watch the models like I do, you look for trends in the guidance, then try to determine if the trends mean anything.  

I have been watching with interest what the models are trying to do with the trough currently sitting along the eastern US coast.  The models, over and over again, have been trying to remove this feature in the four and five day forecast periods and replace it with ridges of various sizes and strength.  The problem is, day after day this is all still happening in the models four and five days out.  If the models were actually on to something, the trough would get kicked out on day 5, then day 4, then day 3 etc until they actually get initialized with the ridge.  But so far, no such luck.

Tonight, strong storms are moving from north to south across the great plains, and the east coast is cooler than normal...but even if this is true now does it really mean anything?  Remember in 2004 we were saying the same types of things about the huge trough that made it rain all day every day in late July into August in Florida, and after that unseasonable trough picked up Hurricane Charley, it vanished, not to return until the season was over.

All of this trough stuff is just here to have something to discuss while the tropics continue to be very quiet.  For anyone wanting a very technical look at the middle to long range forecast thinking, you can read more here.

MW

No Tropical Development on the Horizon

6/4/2006 5:30PM EDT - So far it's been very quiet across the tropical Atlantic.  The main area of interest is an area of disturbed weather associated with broad area of low pressure, located in western Caribbean Sea.  Northerly upper-level winds are making the area unfavorable of any significant tropical development  The GFS model, which had been advertising some sort of development down there has backed off of that idea for a few runs in a row now.  All and all, the tropics are off to a quiet start.

In other tropical news of interest, all of the global models appear to be intent on slowly filling the trough sitting along the eastern US and western Gulf.  By late in the week the models suggest ridging will be building back in, returning things to a more seasonable-type pattern along the eastern coast.

Of course, we would like to see this trough persist throughout the next several months until hurricane season ends, but chances are it won't.

MW

TalkinTropics and Internet Partnership Radio

TalkinTropics broadcast from 5/04/2006 - Dr Avila Interview, Mark Sudduth and more (1 hour 42 min)

On Thursday, 4/27/2006:   We played our exclusive interview with Dr Richard Pasch from the National Hurricane Center, discussed the overhaul idea for FEMA, and took questions on a number of topics.  If you missed the broadcast you can always check out the audio files here.

TalkinTropics broadcast from 4/27/2006 - Dr Pasch Interview, FEMA and more (1 hour 30 min)

Here are some additional recent broadcasts:

TalkinTropics broadcast from 4/20/2006 - Hurricane Talk and Global Warming