Verification Report - Hurricane Katrina (Updated 10/2/2005 10:15PM EDT)

Introduction

Hurricane Katrina was the most destructive hurricane ever to affect the US Coastline, passing Hurricane Andrew in terms of both scope of destruction and economic impact on our Nation.

AccuWeather Meteorologist Joe Bastardi began issuing verifiable forecast positions for this Hurricane starting on the morning of August 24th 2005 and continued to do so throughout the landfall on Katrina on 8/29/2005, with verification points given every 24 hours, instead of the usual 12 hour forecast periods provided by the NHC.  The relative skill of these forecasts, measured objectively, are listed in summary form, as well as on a forecast by forecast basis.

Individual Track Forecast Maps

Please click on a link below to view a specific track forecast map (individual statistics for each forecast coming soon)"

Verified Forecast # 1:  8/24/2005 12Z
Verified Forecast # 2:  8/25/2005 12Z
Verified Forecast # 3:  8/27/2005 12Z
Verified Forecast # 4:  8/28/2005 12Z

Please note:  All Maps currently have an error at the 0829/12Z verify point.  The correct intensity should be 110 knots.  This will be corrected shortly.

Forecast Summary

Below is a summary of the 4 comparable forecasts between the NHC and Accuweather for Katrina.  Errors are along track and are expressed in nautical miles.